FIRST Wisconsin State Championship presented by GE HealthCare

Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

295.01 – 154.93

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

268 – 119

Prediction correct · off by 31.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 497.4 ±9.8

4531STEAMpunk

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 61.18Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

93NEW Apple Corps

Season APEX 115.8Event APEX 67.8Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 166.03Rank 5Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 255 ±10.4

6421WarriorBots

Season APEX 102.2Event APEX 72.87Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7900Trial N' Terror

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 51.28Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2830Riverside RoboTigers

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 30.78Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4531, 93, 1732

/ 100 compat

Projected

295 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4531, 93, 1732

Auto

71.7 24%

Teleop

171.0 57%

Endgame

56.2 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6421, 7900, 2830

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.9 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6421, 7900, 2830

Auto

31.6 19%

Teleop

77.7 47%

Endgame

56.6 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.22 · Blue 0.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score295pts

Blue projected score154.9pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 140.1
Score range: 105–345
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 387 vs event baseline 275.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

497.4Season APEX255

71.7Auto31.6

171Teleop77.7

56.2Endgame56.6

101Consistency76

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	99	19
teleop	152	57
endgame	17	43
foul	0	0
total	268	119

Result

Final score

268 – 119

Prediction correct · off by 31.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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