FIRST Wisconsin State Championship presented by GE HealthCare

Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

207.76 – 174.93

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

245 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 26.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 322.4 ±10.4

6223Arsenal of Engineering

Season APEX 94.2Event APEX 94.05Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

171Cheese Curd Herd

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 76.52Rank 20Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

93NEW Apple Corps

Season APEX 115.8Event APEX 37.19Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 342.2 ±9.8

10553Orange Overdrive

Season APEX 183.6Event APEX 108.24Rank 19Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

7900Trial N' Terror

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX -5.02Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5586Bond Brigade

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 71.71Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6223, 171, 93

/ 100 compat

Projected

207.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6223, 171, 93

Auto

30.5 15%

Teleop

103.5 51%

Endgame

69.3 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10553, 7900, 5586

/ 100 compat

Projected

174.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10553, 7900, 5586

Auto

40.3 24%

Teleop

88.0 52%

Endgame

40.0 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.74 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score207.8pts

Blue projected score174.9pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 32.8
Score range: 126–257
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 404 vs event baseline 274.2.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

322.4Season APEX342.2

30.5Auto40.3

103.5Teleop88

69.3Endgame40

167Consistency159

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	25
teleop	149	72
endgame	41	62
foul	0	0
total	245	159

Result

Final score

245 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 26.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.