FIRST Wisconsin State Championship presented by GE HealthCare

Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

184.74 – 314.29

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

309 – 467

Prediction correct · off by 138.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 288.5 ±10.4

6574Ferradermis

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 79.3Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6732BHS RoboRaiders

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 46.95Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6421WarriorBots

Season APEX 102.2Event APEX 58.49Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 565.5 ±9.3

1792Round Table Robotics

Season APEX 244.6Event APEX 76.26Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3197HexHounds

Season APEX 229.9Event APEX 138.16Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

706Cyberhawks

Season APEX 91Event APEX 99.87Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6574, 6732, 6421

/ 100 compat

Projected

184.7 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6574, 6732, 6421

Auto

42.9 24%

Teleop

88.8 50%

Endgame

46.8 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1792, 3197, 706

/ 100 compat

Projected

314.3 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1792, 3197, 706

Auto

59.0 19%

Teleop

178.7 57%

Endgame

75.8 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.82 · Blue 2.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score184.7pts

Blue projected score314.3pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -129.5
Score range: 136–363
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 776 vs event baseline 270.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

288.5Season APEX565.5

42.9Auto59

88.8Teleop178.7

46.8Endgame75.8

151Consistency154

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	96
teleop	146	225
endgame	102	141
foul	10	5
total	309	467

Result

Final score

309 – 467

Prediction correct · off by 138.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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