FIRST Wisconsin State Championship presented by GE HealthCare

Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

303.63 – 345.54

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

359 – 312

Prediction missed · off by 44.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 449.1 ±9.8

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 161.06Rank 5Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

6381Red Raider Robotics

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 107.71Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9149RoboCats

Season APEX 62.3Event APEX 34.86Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 358.9 ±10.4

4531STEAMpunk

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 96.29Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2202BEAST Robotics

Season APEX 127.6Event APEX 103.19Rank 16Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

8744Leviathans

Season APEX 130.1Event APEX 146.06Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1732, 6381, 9149

/ 100 compat

Projected

303.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1732, 6381, 9149

Auto

65.6 22%

Teleop

123.4 42%

Endgame

104.3 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4531, 2202, 8744

/ 100 compat

Projected

345.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4531, 2202, 8744

Auto

75.8 22%

Teleop

194.6 58%

Endgame

67.5 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.27 · Blue 1.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score303.6pts

Blue projected score345.5pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -41.9
Score range: 255–395
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 671 vs event baseline 269.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

449.1Season APEX358.9

65.6Auto75.8

123.4Teleop194.6

104.3Endgame67.5

222Consistency168

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	84	48
teleop	234	153
endgame	31	106
foul	10	5
total	359	312

Result

Final score

359 – 312

Prediction missed · off by 44.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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