FIRST Wisconsin State Championship presented by GE HealthCare

Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

291.06 – 350.15

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

265 – 396

Prediction correct · off by 36 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 407.8 ±10.4

2826Wave Robotics

Season APEX 215.4Event APEX 91.63Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2062CORE 2062

Season APEX 125.4Event APEX 98.48Rank 10Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4021igKnightion

Season APEX 67Event APEX 100.95Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 513.2 ±9.3

2506Saber Robotics

Season APEX 122.1Event APEX 113.09Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7915Ripon Robotics

Season APEX 228.5Event APEX 107.62Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4786Nicolet FEAR

Season APEX 162.6Event APEX 129.44Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2826, 2062, 4021

/ 100 compat

Projected

291.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2826, 2062, 4021

Auto

43.6 15%

Teleop

175.7 61%

Endgame

69.9 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2506, 7915, 4786

/ 100 compat

Projected

350.2 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2506, 7915, 4786

Auto

53.0 15%

Teleop

229.7 65%

Endgame

71.9 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.26 · Blue 2.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score291.1pts

Blue projected score350.2pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -59.1
Score range: 243–398
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 661 vs event baseline 267.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

407.8Season APEX513.2

43.6Auto53

175.7Teleop229.7

69.9Endgame71.9

148Consistency178

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	68
teleop	157	229
endgame	52	99
foul	0	0
total	265	396

Result

Final score

265 – 396

Prediction correct · off by 36 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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