FIRST Wisconsin State Championship presented by GE HealthCare

Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

229.48 – 283.81

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

323 – 202

Prediction missed · off by 87.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 411.6 ±9.8

2194Fondy Fire

Season APEX 245.9Event APEX 105.93Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6223Arsenal of Engineering

Season APEX 94.2Event APEX 103.24Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10264STORM

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 20.31Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 289.3 ±10.4

171Cheese Curd Herd

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 88.31Rank 20Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5586Bond Brigade

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 120.84Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6421WarriorBots

Season APEX 102.2Event APEX 74.66Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2194, 6223, 10264

/ 100 compat

Projected

229.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2194, 6223, 10264

Auto

58.1 26%

Teleop

101.3 45%

Endgame

63.8 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 171, 5586, 6421

/ 100 compat

Projected

283.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 171, 5586, 6421

Auto

32.2 12%

Teleop

136.2 51%

Endgame

100.7 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.2 · Blue 1.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score229.5pts

Blue projected score283.8pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -54.3
Score range: 181–332
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 525 vs event baseline 267.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

411.6Season APEX289.3

58.1Auto32.2

101.3Teleop136.2

63.8Endgame100.7

160Consistency127

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	77	36
teleop	178	77
endgame	68	84
foul	0	5
total	323	202

Result

Final score

323 – 202

Prediction missed · off by 87.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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