FIRST Wisconsin State Championship presented by GE HealthCare

Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

361.43 – 93.08

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

186 – 257

Prediction missed · off by 169.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 350.8 ±9.8

10553Orange Overdrive

Season APEX 183.6Event APEX 136.11Rank 19Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

706Cyberhawks

Season APEX 91Event APEX 137.74Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8701GRAFFITI

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 87.58Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 424 ±9.8

1714MORE Robotics

Season APEX 220.9Event APEX 48.68Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5826Avis Automata

Season APEX 119.2Event APEX 59.6Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7900Trial N' Terror

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX -15.2Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10553, 706, 8701

/ 100 compat

Projected

361.4 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10553, 706, 8701

Auto

29.2 8%

Teleop

204.5 56%

Endgame

129.1 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1714, 5826, 7900

/ 100 compat

Projected

93.1 pts

~0.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1714, 5826, 7900

Auto

57.5 63%

Teleop

32.1 35%

Endgame

1.2 1%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.36 · Blue 0.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score361.4pts

Blue projected score93.1pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 268.4
Score range: 44–410
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 443 vs event baseline 269.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

350.8Season APEX424

29.2Auto57.5

204.5Teleop32.1

129.1Endgame1.2

151Consistency196

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	62
teleop	106	124
endgame	56	56
foul	0	15
total	186	257

Result

Final score

186 – 257

Prediction missed · off by 169.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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