FIRST Wisconsin State Championship presented by GE HealthCare

Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

313.66 – 248.11

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

307 – 302

Prediction correct · off by 30.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 409.4 ±9.8

3197HexHounds

Season APEX 229.9Event APEX 133.99Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6732BHS RoboRaiders

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 50.11Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6381Red Raider Robotics

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 129.56Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 391 ±9.8

1259Paradigm Shift

Season APEX 194.5Event APEX 97.02Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2830Riverside RoboTigers

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 51.85Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2202BEAST Robotics

Season APEX 127.6Event APEX 99.24Rank 16Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3197, 6732, 6381

/ 100 compat

Projected

313.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3197, 6732, 6381

Auto

70.7 23%

Teleop

164.7 54%

Endgame

67.6 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1259, 2830, 2202

/ 100 compat

Projected

248.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1259, 2830, 2202

Auto

50.4 21%

Teleop

138.8 57%

Endgame

53.4 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.95 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score313.7pts

Blue projected score248.1pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 65.6
Score range: 200–362
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 609 vs event baseline 268.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

409.4Season APEX391

70.7Auto50.4

164.7Teleop138.8

67.6Endgame53.4

188Consistency135

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	75	41
teleop	128	159
endgame	99	102
foul	5	0
total	307	302

Result

Final score

307 – 302

Prediction correct · off by 30.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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