FIRST Wisconsin State Championship presented by GE HealthCare

Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

168.35 – 178.18

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

355 – 212

Prediction missed · off by 110.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 474.8 ±9.8

2062CORE 2062

Season APEX 125.4Event APEX 72.26Rank 10Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 114.03Rank 5Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

10909CuttingEdge

Season APEX 69Event APEX -17.94Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 233.7 ±10.4

93NEW Apple Corps

Season APEX 115.8Event APEX 55.3Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4021igKnightion

Season APEX 67Event APEX 93.16Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

537Charger Robotics

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 29.72Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2062, 1732, 10909

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2062, 1732, 10909

Auto

66.3 38%

Teleop

79.5 46%

Endgame

28.1 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Low variance, consistent output

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 93, 4021, 537

/ 100 compat

Projected

178.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 93, 4021, 537

Auto

48.5 27%

Teleop

116.2 66%

Endgame

12.2 7%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score168.4pts

Blue projected score178.2pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -9.8
Score range: 120–226
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 567 vs event baseline 264.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

474.8Season APEX233.7

66.3Auto48.5

79.5Teleop116.2

28.1Endgame12.2

233Consistency160

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	82	24
teleop	202	117
endgame	71	66
foul	0	5
total	355	212

Result

Final score

355 – 212

Prediction missed · off by 110.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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