FIRST Wisconsin State Championship presented by GE HealthCare

Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

264.23 – 251.89

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

181 – 269

Prediction missed · off by 50.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 428.1 ±9.8

930Mukwonago BEARs

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 142.57Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10909CuttingEdge

Season APEX 69Event APEX 41.21Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

171Cheese Curd Herd

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 80.45Rank 20Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 517 ±9.8

6732BHS RoboRaiders

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 19.25Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2826Wave Robotics

Season APEX 215.4Event APEX 98.49Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7915Ripon Robotics

Season APEX 228.5Event APEX 134.15Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 930, 10909, 171

/ 100 compat

Projected

264.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 930, 10909, 171

Auto

31.6 12%

Teleop

148.2 58%

Endgame

76.6 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6732, 2826, 7915

/ 100 compat

Projected

251.9 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6732, 2826, 7915

Auto

45.7 19%

Teleop

143.8 58%

Endgame

57.1 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.63 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score264.2pts

Blue projected score251.9pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 12.3
Score range: 202–314
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 450 vs event baseline 275.2.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

428.1Season APEX517

31.6Auto45.7

148.2Teleop143.8

76.6Endgame57.1

101Consistency122

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	63
teleop	83	165
endgame	75	41
foul	0	0
total	181	269

Result

Final score

181 – 269

Prediction missed · off by 50.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.