FIRST Wisconsin State Championship presented by GE HealthCare

Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

228.01 – 212.09

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

283 – 199

Prediction correct · off by 34 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 482.7 ±9.3

1675UPS (Ultimate Protection Squad)

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 35.35Rank 32Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4786Nicolet FEAR

Season APEX 162.6Event APEX 116.05Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1792Round Table Robotics

Season APEX 244.6Event APEX 76.61Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 548 ±9.3

7915Ripon Robotics

Season APEX 228.5Event APEX 107Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9149RoboCats

Season APEX 62.3Event APEX 43.29Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1306BadgerBOTS

Season APEX 257.2Event APEX 61.8Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1675, 4786, 1792

/ 100 compat

Projected

228 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1675, 4786, 1792

Auto

44.1 19%

Teleop

113.0 49%

Endgame

71.3 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7915, 9149, 1306

/ 100 compat

Projected

212.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7915, 9149, 1306

Auto

39.2 18%

Teleop

136.0 64%

Endgame

38.4 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.63 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score228pts

Blue projected score212.1pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 15.9
Score range: 164–276
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 482 vs event baseline 265.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

482.7Season APEX548

44.1Auto39.2

113Teleop136

71.3Endgame38.4

127Consistency185

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	31
teleop	177	111
endgame	72	52
foul	0	5
total	283	199

Result

Final score

283 – 199

Prediction correct · off by 34 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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