Qualification · Qualification 18
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
276.81 – 191.96
74%26%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
325 – 187
Prediction correct · off by 26.6 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 510.9 ±9.3
Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 114.97Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 220.9Event APEX 40.65Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 183.6Event APEX 121.19Rank 19Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 301.3 ±10.4
Season APEX 102.2Event APEX 81.2Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 127.6Event APEX 116.14Rank 16Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 71.5Event APEX -5.38Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 6381, 1714, 10553
67
/ 100 compatProjected
276.8 pts
~2.0 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 6381, 1714, 10553
Auto
48.3 18%
Teleop
171.8 63%
Endgame
52.2 19%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 41%
Supercharged: 8%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 6421, 2202, 10264
50
/ 100 compatProjected
192 pts
~0.9 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 6421, 2202, 10264
Auto
26.4 14%
Teleop
69.0 37%
Endgame
89.5 48%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 41%
Supercharged: 8%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.99 · Blue 0.93
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score276.8pts
Blue projected score192pts
Red win probability74%
Event bonus sample174alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 41%, blue 37%
Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 84.9
- Score range
- 144–325
- Upset likelihood
- 26%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
510.9Season APEX301.3
48.3Auto26.4
171.8Teleop69
52.2Endgame89.5
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 78 | 36 |
| teleop | 171 | 87 |
| endgame | 61 | 49 |
| foul | 15 | 15 |
| total | 325 | 187 |
Result
Final score
325 – 187
Prediction correct · off by 26.6 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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