FIRST Wisconsin State Championship presented by GE HealthCare

Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

173.91 – 282.87

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

321 – 426

Prediction correct · off by 145.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 435.8 ±10.4

2826Wave Robotics

Season APEX 215.4Event APEX 79.13Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4531STEAMpunk

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 62.33Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5826Avis Automata

Season APEX 119.2Event APEX 32.45Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 472.4 ±9.8

8744Leviathans

Season APEX 130.1Event APEX 113.28Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

171Cheese Curd Herd

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 55.14Rank 20Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

3197HexHounds

Season APEX 229.9Event APEX 114.45Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2826, 4531, 5826

/ 100 compat

Projected

173.9 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2826, 4531, 5826

Auto

59.5 35%

Teleop

77.1 45%

Endgame

33.2 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8744, 171, 3197

/ 100 compat

Projected

282.9 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8744, 171, 3197

Auto

48.5 17%

Teleop

149.3 53%

Endgame

84.4 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1 · Blue 2.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score173.9pts

Blue projected score282.9pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -109
Score range: 127–330
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 747 vs event baseline 259.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

435.8Season APEX472.4

59.5Auto48.5

77.1Teleop149.3

33.2Endgame84.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	67
teleop	170	238
endgame	88	106
foul	5	15
total	321	426

Result

Final score

321 – 426

Prediction correct · off by 145.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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