Qualification · Qualification 15
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
204.62 – 205.69
50%50%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
110 – 302
Prediction correct · off by 95.5 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 211.5 ±10.4
Season APEX 69Event APEX 46.2Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 42.33Rank 32Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 67Event APEX 116.09Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 440.2 ±9.8
Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 25.11Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 125.4Event APEX 75.32Rank 10Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 245.9Event APEX 105.26Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 10909, 1675, 4021
61
/ 100 compatProjected
204.6 pts
~1.4 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 10909, 1675, 4021
Auto
38.1 19%
Teleop
111.8 55%
Endgame
52.1 26%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 35%
Supercharged: 5%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 2830, 2062, 2194
61
/ 100 compatProjected
205.7 pts
~1.6 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 2830, 2062, 2194
Auto
52.0 25%
Teleop
115.1 56%
Endgame
37.4 18%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 35%
Supercharged: 5%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.41 · Blue 1.55
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score204.6pts
Blue projected score205.7pts
Red win probability50%
Event bonus sample174alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 35%, blue 46%
Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 7%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -1.1
- Score range
- 159–252
- Upset likelihood
- 50%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
211.5Season APEX440.2
38.1Auto52
111.8Teleop115.1
52.1Endgame37.4
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 19 | 75 |
| teleop | 49 | 204 |
| endgame | 42 | 23 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 110 | 302 |
Result
Final score
110 – 302
Prediction correct · off by 95.5 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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