FIRST Wisconsin State Championship presented by GE HealthCare

Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

318.04 – 132.63

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

299 – 110

Prediction correct · off by 20.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 547.8 ±9.3

5586Bond Brigade

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 116.11Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7915Ripon Robotics

Season APEX 228.5Event APEX 120.84Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1792Round Table Robotics

Season APEX 244.6Event APEX 81.09Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 248 ±10.4

537Charger Robotics

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 56.74Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7900Trial N' Terror

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 3.44Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6574Ferradermis

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 72.45Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5586, 7915, 1792

/ 100 compat

Projected

318 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5586, 7915, 1792

Auto

58.7 19%

Teleop

179.0 58%

Endgame

73.3 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 537, 7900, 6574

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.6 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 537, 7900, 6574

Auto

43.5 33%

Teleop

37.9 29%

Endgame

48.6 37%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.5 · Blue 0.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score318pts

Blue projected score132.6pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 185.4
Score range: 86–365
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 409 vs event baseline 260.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

547.8Season APEX248

58.7Auto43.5

179Teleop37.9

73.3Endgame48.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	79	55
teleop	169	53
endgame	51	2
foul	0	0
total	299	110

Result

Final score

299 – 110

Prediction correct · off by 20.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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