FIRST Wisconsin State Championship presented by GE HealthCare

Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

245.64 – 275.49

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

223 – 189

Prediction missed · off by 54.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 340.7 ±9.8

9149RoboCats

Season APEX 62.3Event APEX 46.8Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

93NEW Apple Corps

Season APEX 115.8Event APEX 83.97Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4786Nicolet FEAR

Season APEX 162.6Event APEX 114.87Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 524.8 ±9.3

6732BHS RoboRaiders

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 74.18Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1306BadgerBOTS

Season APEX 257.2Event APEX 87.72Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1259Paradigm Shift

Season APEX 194.5Event APEX 113.59Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9149, 93, 4786

/ 100 compat

Projected

245.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9149, 93, 4786

Auto

52.2 22%

Teleop

111.7 47%

Endgame

76.1 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6732, 1306, 1259

/ 100 compat

Projected

275.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6732, 1306, 1259

Auto

41.4 15%

Teleop

168.9 62%

Endgame

60.5 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.24 · Blue 1.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score245.6pts

Blue projected score275.5pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -29.9
Score range: 198–323
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 412 vs event baseline 264.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

340.7Season APEX524.8

52.2Auto41.4

111.7Teleop168.9

76.1Endgame60.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	41
teleop	132	111
endgame	49	37
foul	5	0
total	223	189

Result

Final score

223 – 189

Prediction missed · off by 54.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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