FIRST Wisconsin State Championship presented by GE HealthCare

Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

210.13 – 161.47

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Tie

Final score

307 – 307

Prediction correct · off by 121.2 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 421.4 ±9.8

2062CORE 2062

Season APEX 125.4Event APEX 71.43Rank 10Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

10553Orange Overdrive

Season APEX 183.6Event APEX 102.61Rank 19Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

171Cheese Curd Herd

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 36.09Rank 20Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 483.5 ±9.8

1675UPS (Ultimate Protection Squad)

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 25.59Rank 32Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

2202BEAST Robotics

Season APEX 127.6Event APEX 65.42Rank 16Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 70.46Rank 5Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2062, 10553, 171

/ 100 compat

Projected

210.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2062, 10553, 171

Auto

33.1 16%

Teleop

141.3 68%

Endgame

34.9 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1675, 2202, 1732

/ 100 compat

Projected

161.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1675, 2202, 1732

Auto

42.6 27%

Teleop

94.2 60%

Endgame

21.1 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.86 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score210.1pts

Blue projected score161.5pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 48.7
Score range: 115–256
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 614 vs event baseline 256.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

421.4Season APEX483.5

33.1Auto42.6

141.3Teleop94.2

34.9Endgame21.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	76
teleop	187	142
endgame	84	84
foul	5	5
total	307	307

Result

Final score

307 – 307

Prediction correct · off by 121.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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