FIRST Wisconsin State Championship presented by GE HealthCare

Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

152.32 – 229.45

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

328 – 391

Prediction correct · off by 168.6 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 441 ±9.8

1792Round Table Robotics

Season APEX 244.6Event APEX 58.57Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6223Arsenal of Engineering

Season APEX 94.2Event APEX 58.57Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6421WarriorBots

Season APEX 102.2Event APEX 35.18Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 425.6 ±9.8

4021igKnightion

Season APEX 67Event APEX 88.03Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7915Ripon Robotics

Season APEX 228.5Event APEX 71.22Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8744Leviathans

Season APEX 130.1Event APEX 70.2Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1792, 6223, 6421

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1792, 6223, 6421

Auto

38.4 26%

Teleop

94.4 63%

Endgame

16.7 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4021, 7915, 8744

/ 100 compat

Projected

229.5 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4021, 7915, 8744

Auto

42.0 19%

Teleop

142.6 63%

Endgame

41.8 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.09 · Blue 2.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score152.3pts

Blue projected score229.5pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -77.1
Score range: 108–273
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 719 vs event baseline 244.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

441Season APEX425.6

38.4Auto42

94.4Teleop142.6

16.7Endgame41.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	68
teleop	142	244
endgame	143	79
foul	10	0
total	328	391

Result

Final score

328 – 391

Prediction correct · off by 168.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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