FIRST Wisconsin State Championship presented by GE HealthCare

Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

270.85 – 309.94

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

380 – 403

Prediction correct · off by 101.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 411.6 ±9.8

706Cyberhawks

Season APEX 91Event APEX 76.57Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5586Bond Brigade

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 32.73Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2194Fondy Fire

Season APEX 245.9Event APEX 161.55Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 463.5 ±9.3

1259Paradigm Shift

Season APEX 194.5Event APEX 142.58Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6381Red Raider Robotics

Season APEX 106.4Event APEX 72.23Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4786Nicolet FEAR

Season APEX 162.6Event APEX 95.13Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 706, 5586, 2194

/ 100 compat

Projected

270.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 706, 5586, 2194

Auto

68.1 24%

Teleop

150.5 54%

Endgame

62.6 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1259, 6381, 4786

/ 100 compat

Projected

309.9 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1259, 6381, 4786

Auto

49.3 17%

Teleop

161.3 55%

Endgame

84.6 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.33 · Blue 1.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score270.9pts

Blue projected score309.9pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -39.1
Score range: 221–360
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 783 vs event baseline 275.2.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

411.6Season APEX463.5

68.1Auto49.3

150.5Teleop161.3

62.6Endgame84.6

67Consistency139

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	82	61
teleop	218	225
endgame	75	112
foul	5	5
total	380	403

Result

Final score

380 – 403

Prediction correct · off by 101.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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