FIRST Wisconsin State Championship presented by GE HealthCare

Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

341.48 – 404.4

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

420 – 427

Prediction correct · off by 50.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 605.3 ±9.3

6421WarriorBots

Season APEX 102.2Event APEX 69.88Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2194Fondy Fire

Season APEX 245.9Event APEX 158.61Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1306BadgerBOTS

Season APEX 257.2Event APEX 112.99Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 693.9 ±8.7

10553Orange Overdrive

Season APEX 183.6Event APEX 66.59Rank 19Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

3197HexHounds

Season APEX 229.9Event APEX 172.07Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 165.74Rank 5Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6421, 2194, 1306

/ 100 compat

Projected

341.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6421, 2194, 1306

Auto

93.5 24%

Teleop

228.4 58%

Endgame

72.9 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10553, 3197, 1732

/ 100 compat

Projected

404.4 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10553, 3197, 1732

Auto

98.7 22%

Teleop

258.6 59%

Endgame

82.2 19%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.11 · Blue 1.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score341.5pts

Blue projected score404.4pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -62.9
Score range: 292–453
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 847 vs event baseline 273.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

605.3Season APEX693.9

93.5Auto98.7

228.4Teleop258.6

72.9Endgame82.2

15Consistency11

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	111	103
teleop	209	171
endgame	95	153
foul	5	0
total	420	427

Result

Final score

420 – 427

Prediction correct · off by 50.6 pts

Match videos

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