FIRST Wisconsin State Championship presented by GE HealthCare

Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

390.16 – 402.86

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

0 – 404

Prediction correct · off by 195.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 605.3 ±9.3

6421WarriorBots

Season APEX 102.2Event APEX 86.72Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2194Fondy Fire

Season APEX 245.9Event APEX 175.22Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1306BadgerBOTS

Season APEX 257.2Event APEX 128.22Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 693.9 ±8.7

10553Orange Overdrive

Season APEX 183.6Event APEX 66.33Rank 19Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

3197HexHounds

Season APEX 229.9Event APEX 173Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 163.53Rank 5Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6421, 2194, 1306

/ 100 compat

Projected

390.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6421, 2194, 1306

Auto

92.3 24%

Teleop

225.8 59%

Endgame

66.5 17%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10553, 3197, 1732

/ 100 compat

Projected

402.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10553, 3197, 1732

Auto

99.1 22%

Teleop

260.1 59%

Endgame

84.4 19%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.4 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score390.2pts

Blue projected score402.9pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -12.7
Score range: 341–452
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 404 vs event baseline 274.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

605.3Season APEX693.9

92.3Auto99.1

225.8Teleop260.1

66.5Endgame84.4

53Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	102	95
teleop	246	245
endgame	117	64
foul	0	0
total	0	404

Result

Final score

0 – 404

Prediction correct · off by 195.7 pts

Match videos

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