Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

185.27 – 119.5

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

192 – 146

Prediction correct · off by 16.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 415.7 ±9.8

2830Riverside RoboTigers

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 27.72Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6421WarriorBots

Season APEX 102.2Event APEX 76.04Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1792Round Table Robotics

Season APEX 244.6Event APEX 81.51Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 324.5 ±10.5

10553Orange Overdrive

Season APEX 183.6Event APEX 35.02Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

171Cheese Curd Herd

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 50.27Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6318FE Freedom Engineers

Season APEX 28.5Event APEX 34.21Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2830, 6421, 1792

/ 100 compat

Projected

185.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2830, 6421, 1792

Auto

35.8 20%

Teleop

96.7 53%

Endgame

48.5 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10553, 171, 6318

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10553, 171, 6318

Auto

24.9 22%

Teleop

58.8 53%

Endgame

27.1 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.82 · Blue 1.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score185.3pts

Blue projected score119.5pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 65.8
Score range: 96–209
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 338 vs event baseline 130.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

415.7Season APEX324.5

35.8Auto24.9

96.7Teleop58.8

48.5Endgame27.1

52Consistency82

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	20
teleop	102	48
endgame	62	68
foul	0	10
total	192	146

Result

Final score

192 – 146

Prediction correct · off by 16.6 pts

Match videos

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