Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

243.45 – 157.76

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

302 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 29.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 493.4 ±9.3

10909CuttingEdge

Season APEX 69Event APEX 33.25Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3197HexHounds

Season APEX 229.9Event APEX 97.39Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1259Paradigm Shift

Season APEX 194.5Event APEX 112.81Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 231.6 ±11

6223Arsenal of Engineering

Season APEX 94.2Event APEX 63.52Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5903ThorBots

Season APEX 65.9Event APEX 27.51Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10264STORM

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 66.73Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10909, 3197, 1259

/ 100 compat

Projected

243.5 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10909, 3197, 1259

Auto

45.5 19%

Teleop

139.3 58%

Endgame

56.1 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6223, 5903, 10264

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.8 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 6223, 5903, 10264

Auto

18.1 12%

Teleop

80.8 54%

Endgame

50.7 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.02 · Blue 0.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score243.5pts

Blue projected score157.8pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 85.7
Score range: 135–266
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 459 vs event baseline 129.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

493.4Season APEX231.6

45.5Auto18.1

139.3Teleop80.8

56.1Endgame50.7

0Consistency9

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	19
teleop	205	77
endgame	48	46
foul	0	15
total	302	157

Result

Final score

302 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 29.7 pts

Match videos

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