Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

115.3 – 140.61

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

147 – 143

Prediction missed · off by 17 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 324.5 ±10.5

10553Orange Overdrive

Season APEX 183.6Event APEX 34.05Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

171Cheese Curd Herd

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 48.36Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6318FE Freedom Engineers

Season APEX 28.5Event APEX 32.89Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 274.7 ±11

706Cyberhawks

Season APEX 91Event APEX 40.92Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

93NEW Apple Corps

Season APEX 115.8Event APEX 57.65Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5148New Berlin Blitz

Season APEX 67.9Event APEX 42.04Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10553, 171, 6318

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10553, 171, 6318

Auto

24.9 22%

Teleop

61.8 55%

Endgame

24.8 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 706, 93, 5148

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 706, 93, 5148

Auto

22.3 16%

Teleop

73.9 54%

Endgame

40.3 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.34 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score115.3pts

Blue projected score140.6pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -25.3
Score range: 92–164
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 290 vs event baseline 127.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

324.5Season APEX274.7

24.9Auto22.3

61.8Teleop73.9

24.8Endgame40.3

69Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	19
teleop	48	85
endgame	39	29
foul	35	10
total	147	143

Result

Final score

147 – 143

Prediction missed · off by 17 pts

Match videos

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