Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

155.1 – 134.67

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

181 – 166

Prediction correct · off by 28.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 231.6 ±11

6223Arsenal of Engineering

Season APEX 94.2Event APEX 62.22Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5903ThorBots

Season APEX 65.9Event APEX 26.73Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10264STORM

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 66.15Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 274.7 ±11

706Cyberhawks

Season APEX 91Event APEX 39.02Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

93NEW Apple Corps

Season APEX 115.8Event APEX 55.77Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5148New Berlin Blitz

Season APEX 67.9Event APEX 39.88Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6223, 5903, 10264

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6223, 5903, 10264

Auto

18.5 13%

Teleop

79.5 54%

Endgame

48.7 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 706, 93, 5148

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 706, 93, 5148

Auto

20.2 15%

Teleop

71.5 54%

Endgame

41.9 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.59 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score155.1pts

Blue projected score134.7pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 20.4
Score range: 112–178
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 347 vs event baseline 126.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

231.6Season APEX274.7

18.5Auto20.2

79.5Teleop71.5

48.7Endgame41.9

4Consistency9

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	31
teleop	90	85
endgame	62	35
foul	10	15
total	181	166

Result

Final score

181 – 166

Prediction correct · off by 28.6 pts

Match videos

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