Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

232.05 – 117.43

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

308 – 116

Prediction correct · off by 38.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 493.4 ±9.3

10909CuttingEdge

Season APEX 69Event APEX 29.06Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3197HexHounds

Season APEX 229.9Event APEX 93.82Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1259Paradigm Shift

Season APEX 194.5Event APEX 109.17Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 324.5 ±10.5

10553Orange Overdrive

Season APEX 183.6Event APEX 34.69Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

171Cheese Curd Herd

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 48.86Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6318FE Freedom Engineers

Season APEX 28.5Event APEX 33.88Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10909, 3197, 1259

/ 100 compat

Projected

232.1 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10909, 3197, 1259

Auto

43.3 19%

Teleop

130.2 57%

Endgame

56.8 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10553, 171, 6318

/ 100 compat

Projected

117.4 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10553, 171, 6318

Auto

25.8 23%

Teleop

61.4 55%

Endgame

25.4 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.15 · Blue 0.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score232.1pts

Blue projected score117.4pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 114.6
Score range: 94–255
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 424 vs event baseline 125.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

493.4Season APEX324.5

43.3Auto25.8

130.2Teleop61.4

56.8Endgame25.4

13Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	23
teleop	184	70
endgame	56	23
foul	10	0
total	308	116

Result

Final score

308 – 116

Prediction correct · off by 38.7 pts

Match videos

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