Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
141.42 – 186.45
36%64%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
154 – 156
Prediction correct · off by 21.5 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 316.1 ±11
Season APEX 119.2Event APEX 76.85Rank 5Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 18.11Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 130.1Event APEX 46.46Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 415.7 ±9.8
Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 27.22Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 102.2Event APEX 76.36Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 244.6Event APEX 82.87Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 5826, 7103, 8744
68
/ 100 compatProjected
141.4 pts
~1.2 RP (district)
Teams: 5826, 7103, 8744
Auto
39.6 29%
Teleop
69.9 51%
Endgame
27.3 20%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 43%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 2830, 6421, 1792
83
/ 100 compatProjected
186.5 pts
~1.7 RP (district)
Teams: 2830, 6421, 1792
Auto
32.0 17%
Teleop
101.4 55%
Endgame
50.0 27%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 43%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.2 · Blue 1.71
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score141.4pts
Blue projected score186.5pts
Red win probability36%
Event bonus sample182alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 43%, blue 39%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -45
- Score range
- 118–209
- Upset likelihood
- 36%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Match context
Close match
High scoring
Playoff
Combined score 310 vs event baseline 125.2.
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
316.1Season APEX415.7
39.6Auto32
69.9Teleop101.4
27.3Endgame50
9Consistency51
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 47 | 42 |
| teleop | 54 | 81 |
| endgame | 23 | 28 |
| foul | 30 | 5 |
| total | 154 | 156 |
Result
Final score
154 – 156
Prediction correct · off by 21.5 pts
Match videos
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