Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
253.9 – 194.57
68%32%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
179 – 189
Prediction missed · off by 40.2 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 493.4 ±9.3
Season APEX 69Event APEX 37.51Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 229.9Event APEX 99.63Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 194.5Event APEX 116.76Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 415.7 ±9.8
Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 30.89Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 102.2Event APEX 78.87Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 244.6Event APEX 84.81Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 10909, 3197, 1259
81
/ 100 compatProjected
253.9 pts
~1.9 RP (district)
Teams: 10909, 3197, 1259
Auto
45.8 18%
Teleop
147.7 59%
Endgame
58.4 23%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 49%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 2830, 6421, 1792
82
/ 100 compatProjected
194.6 pts
~1.1 RP (district)
Teams: 2830, 6421, 1792
Auto
36.0 19%
Teleop
100.8 53%
Endgame
53.1 28%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 49%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.89 · Blue 1.08
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score253.9pts
Blue projected score194.6pts
Red win probability68%
Event bonus sample182alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 49%, blue 39%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 59.3
- Score range
- 171–278
- Upset likelihood
- 32%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Match context
Upset
Close match
High scoring
Playoff
Combined score 368 vs event baseline 134.3.
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
493.4Season APEX415.7
45.8Auto36
147.7Teleop100.8
58.4Endgame53.1
0Consistency47
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 40 | 45 |
| teleop | 61 | 84 |
| endgame | 63 | 60 |
| foul | 15 | 0 |
| total | 179 | 189 |
Result
Final score
179 – 189
Prediction missed · off by 40.2 pts
Match videos
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