Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
153.38 – 185.49
40%60%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
75 – 253
Prediction correct · off by 72.9 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 231.6 ±11
Season APEX 94.2Event APEX 61.76Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 65.9Event APEX 26.13Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 65.49Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 415.7 ±9.8
Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 27.9Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 102.2Event APEX 75.98Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 244.6Event APEX 81.61Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 6223, 5903, 10264
65
/ 100 compatProjected
153.4 pts
~1.3 RP (district)
Teams: 6223, 5903, 10264
Auto
17.8 12%
Teleop
76.0 53%
Endgame
49.5 35%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 41%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 2830, 6421, 1792
80
/ 100 compatProjected
185.5 pts
~1.6 RP (district)
Teams: 2830, 6421, 1792
Auto
34.4 19%
Teleop
97.9 54%
Endgame
50.1 27%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 41%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.26 · Blue 1.63
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score153.4pts
Blue projected score185.5pts
Red win probability40%
Event bonus sample182alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 41%, blue 39%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -32.1
- Score range
- 129–209
- Upset likelihood
- 40%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
231.6Season APEX415.7
17.8Auto34.4
76Teleop97.9
49.5Endgame50.1
18Consistency58
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 20 | 47 |
| teleop | 38 | 119 |
| endgame | 17 | 72 |
| foul | 0 | 15 |
| total | 75 | 253 |
Result
Final score
75 – 253
Prediction correct · off by 72.9 pts
Match videos
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