Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
157.19 – 143.17
54%46%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
137 – 129
Prediction correct · off by 17.2 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 231.6 ±11
Season APEX 94.2Event APEX 63.19Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 65.9Event APEX 27.61Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 66.39Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 316.1 ±11
Season APEX 119.2Event APEX 78.13Rank 5Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 18.44Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 130.1Event APEX 46.6Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 6223, 5903, 10264
67
/ 100 compatProjected
157.2 pts
~1.6 RP (district)
Teams: 6223, 5903, 10264
Auto
18.3 12%
Teleop
79.9 54%
Endgame
49.7 34%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 41%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 5826, 7103, 8744
66
/ 100 compatProjected
143.2 pts
~1.4 RP (district)
Teams: 5826, 7103, 8744
Auto
40.9 30%
Teleop
67.6 50%
Endgame
26.2 19%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 41%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.55 · Blue 1.39
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score157.2pts
Blue projected score143.2pts
Red win probability54%
Event bonus sample182alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 41%, blue 43%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 14
- Score range
- 119–181
- Upset likelihood
- 46%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
231.6Season APEX316.1
18.3Auto40.9
79.9Teleop67.6
49.7Endgame26.2
13Consistency18
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 18 | 56 |
| teleop | 50 | 55 |
| endgame | 49 | 18 |
| foul | 20 | 0 |
| total | 137 | 129 |
Result
Final score
137 – 129
Prediction correct · off by 17.2 pts
Match videos
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