Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

84.86 – 24.79

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

182 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 60.7 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 658.1 ±8.7

1792Round Table Robotics

Season APEX 244.6Event APEX 17.14Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10553Orange Overdrive

Season APEX 183.6Event APEX 10.29Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3197HexHounds

Season APEX 229.9Event APEX 57.43Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 186.8 ±13.3

5148New Berlin Blitz

Season APEX 67.9Event APEX 7.14Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9425Intra Milwaukee

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 2.02Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8802Milwaukee United

Season APEX 52.1Event APEX 15.63Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1792, 10553, 3197

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.9 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1792, 10553, 3197

Auto

20.0 24%

Teleop

40.6 50%

Endgame

21.4 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5148, 9425, 8802

/ 100 compat

Projected

24.8 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5148, 9425, 8802

Auto

5.7 26%

Teleop

10.0 46%

Endgame

6.1 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.92 · Blue 0.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score84.9pts

Blue projected score24.8pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 60.1
Score range: 7–103
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 231 vs event baseline 99.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

658.1Season APEX186.8

20Auto5.7

40.6Teleop10

21.4Endgame6.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	13
teleop	109	17
endgame	24	19
foul	0	0
total	182	49

Result

Final score

182 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 60.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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