Qualification · Qualification 75

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

79.02 – 54.83

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

102 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 12.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 146.1 ±14.1

9760Cristo Rey Jesuit Trailblazers

Season APEX 61.1Event APEX 23.51Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8803MechaMarines

Season APEX 41.7Event APEX 25.27Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

1091Oriole Assault

Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 30.24Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 182.9 ±13.3

3381Droid Rage

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 22.79Rank 38Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9425Intra Milwaukee

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 12.69Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7103Robo Remedy @ Manitowoc Lutheran High School

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 19.35Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9760, 8803, 1091

/ 100 compat

Projected

79 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9760, 8803, 1091

Auto

17.1 22%

Teleop

42.3 54%

Endgame

19.6 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3381, 9425, 7103

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3381, 9425, 7103

Auto

22.4 43%

Teleop

16.5 32%

Endgame

13.0 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score79pts

Blue projected score54.8pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 24.2
Score range: 33–101
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 159 vs event baseline 123.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

146.1Season APEX182.9

17.1Auto22.4

42.3Teleop16.5

19.6Endgame13

57Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	26
teleop	36	21
endgame	48	10
foul	0	0
total	102	57

Result

Final score

102 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 12.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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