Qualification · Qualification 74

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

93.31 – 51.76

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

175 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 44.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 342.2 ±10.5

8744Leviathans

Season APEX 130.1Event APEX 38.88Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10553Orange Overdrive

Season APEX 183.6Event APEX 27.78Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6318FE Freedom Engineers

Season APEX 28.5Event APEX 26.65Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 200.4 ±12.8

4054The Aeronauts

Season APEX 78.4Event APEX 14.71Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2830Riverside RoboTigers

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 28.56Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11139Blackhawk Robotics #11139

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 8.49Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8744, 10553, 6318

/ 100 compat

Projected

93.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 8744, 10553, 6318

Auto

30.0 34%

Teleop

43.8 50%

Endgame

14.5 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4054, 2830, 11139

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4054, 2830, 11139

Auto

19.5 40%

Teleop

21.1 43%

Endgame

8.5 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score93.3pts

Blue projected score51.8pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 41.6
Score range: 30–115
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 219 vs event baseline 123.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

342.2Season APEX200.4

30Auto19.5

43.8Teleop21.1

14.5Endgame8.5

66Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	11
teleop	104	17
endgame	34	16
foul	0	0
total	175	44

Result

Final score

175 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 44.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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