Qualification · Qualification 73

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

80.31 – 129.5

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

69 – 173

Prediction correct · off by 27.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 192.5 ±12.2

5096The Teutonic Force

Season APEX 55.6Event APEX 7.24Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5148New Berlin Blitz

Season APEX 67.9Event APEX 42.9Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10909CuttingEdge

Season APEX 69Event APEX 30.17Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 290.2 ±11.7

5826Avis Automata

Season APEX 119.2Event APEX 75.17Rank 5Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

171Cheese Curd Herd

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 46.45Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8700W.I.R.E.D

Season APEX 58.6Event APEX 7.88Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5096, 5148, 10909

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5096, 5148, 10909

Auto

22.4 28%

Teleop

27.0 34%

Endgame

29.2 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5826, 171, 8700

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5826, 171, 8700

Auto

28.4 23%

Teleop

56.0 45%

Endgame

39.9 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.07 · Blue 1.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score80.3pts

Blue projected score129.5pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -49.2
Score range: 58–152
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 242 vs event baseline 123.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

192.5Season APEX290.2

22.4Auto28.4

27Teleop56

29.2Endgame39.9

10Consistency1

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	37
teleop	27	85
endgame	22	36
foul	0	15
total	69	173

Result

Final score

69 – 173

Prediction correct · off by 27.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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