Qualification · Qualification 72

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

219.9 – 227.05

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

224 – 265

Prediction correct · off by 21 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 556.4 ±9.9

2194Fondy Fire

Season APEX 245.9Event APEX 108.53Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5903ThorBots

Season APEX 65.9Event APEX 27.46Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1792Round Table Robotics

Season APEX 244.6Event APEX 83.91Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 380.3 ±12.4

1716Redbird Robotics

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 7.15Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1306BadgerBOTS

Season APEX 257.2Event APEX 211.27Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6643Walnuts and Bolts

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 8.63Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2194, 5903, 1792

/ 100 compat

Projected

219.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2194, 5903, 1792

Auto

56.3 26%

Teleop

104.5 48%

Endgame

56.5 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1716, 1306, 6643

/ 100 compat

Projected

227.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1716, 1306, 6643

Auto

36.2 16%

Teleop

142.4 64%

Endgame

44.2 20%

Strengths

· 1306 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.43 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score219.9pts

Blue projected score227.1pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -7.2
Score range: 198–249
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 489 vs event baseline 121.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

556.4Season APEX380.3

56.3Auto36.2

104.5Teleop142.4

56.5Endgame44.2

7Consistency71

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	51
teleop	113	165
endgame	66	49
foul	10	0
total	224	265

Result

Final score

224 – 265

Prediction correct · off by 21 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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