Qualification · Qualification 71

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

55.15 – 129.64

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

46 – 110

Prediction correct · off by 14.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 379.5 ±10.4

706Cyberhawks

Season APEX 91Event APEX 40.66Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6732BHS RoboRaiders

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 17.14Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2826Wave Robotics

Season APEX 215.4Event APEX -2.65Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 232.2 ±11.7

9578Player One

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX -5.52Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6223Arsenal of Engineering

Season APEX 94.2Event APEX 65.72Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10264STORM

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 69.44Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 706, 6732, 2826

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.2 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 706, 6732, 2826

Auto

14.8 27%

Teleop

32.7 61%

Endgame

6.5 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9578, 6223, 10264

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9578, 6223, 10264

Auto

16.5 14%

Teleop

63.1 54%

Endgame

36.4 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.92 · Blue 1.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score55.2pts

Blue projected score129.6pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -74.5
Score range: 33–152
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 156 vs event baseline 122.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

379.5Season APEX232.2

14.8Auto16.5

32.7Teleop63.1

6.5Endgame36.4

51Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	20
teleop	8	69
endgame	16	21
foul	5	0
total	46	110

Result

Final score

46 – 110

Prediction correct · off by 14.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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