Qualification · Qualification 69

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

51.91 – 74.44

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

83 – 65

Prediction missed · off by 20.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 185.6 ±12.2

9760Cristo Rey Jesuit Trailblazers

Season APEX 61.1Event APEX 20.38Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5096The Teutonic Force

Season APEX 55.6Event APEX 5.01Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2830Riverside RoboTigers

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 26.52Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 178.6 ±13.3

8700W.I.R.E.D

Season APEX 58.6Event APEX 9.05Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5019Gearbox Heroes

Season APEX 52.1Event APEX 20.96Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5148New Berlin Blitz

Season APEX 67.9Event APEX 44.43Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9760, 5096, 2830

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9760, 5096, 2830

Auto

20.6 40%

Teleop

18.3 35%

Endgame

12.7 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8700, 5019, 5148

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8700, 5019, 5148

Auto

15.3 22%

Teleop

25.9 37%

Endgame

29.5 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.15 · Blue 1.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score51.9pts

Blue projected score74.4pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -22.5
Score range: 30–96
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 148 vs event baseline 123.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

185.6Season APEX178.6

20.6Auto15.3

18.3Teleop25.9

12.7Endgame29.5

37Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	16
teleop	46	19
endgame	16	30
foul	0	0
total	83	65

Result

Final score

83 – 65

Prediction missed · off by 20.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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