Qualification · Qualification 66

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

32.09 – 98.45

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

78 – 126

Prediction correct · off by 36.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 299 ±12.4

10553Orange Overdrive

Season APEX 183.6Event APEX 24.14Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10287Kingdom Prep RC

Season APEX 48.9Event APEX 16.81Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9578Player One

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX -8.86Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 231.6 ±11.7

10909CuttingEdge

Season APEX 69Event APEX 29.16Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6643Walnuts and Bolts

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 6.26Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6223Arsenal of Engineering

Season APEX 94.2Event APEX 63.03Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10553, 10287, 9578

/ 100 compat

Projected

32.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10553, 10287, 9578

Auto

16.3 79%

Teleop

4.7 23%

Endgame

-0.4 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10909, 6643, 6223

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10909, 6643, 6223

Auto

16.1 18%

Teleop

47.3 54%

Endgame

24.4 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.01 · Blue 1.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score32.1pts

Blue projected score98.5pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -66.4
Score range: 10–120
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 204 vs event baseline 123.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

299Season APEX231.6

16.3Auto16.1

4.7Teleop47.3

-0.4Endgame24.4

58Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	27
teleop	50	48
endgame	4	51
foul	0	0
total	78	126

Result

Final score

78 – 126

Prediction correct · off by 36.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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