Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

210.72 – 197.45

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

253 – 171

Prediction correct · off by 34.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 357 ±9.8

10264STORM

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 65.95Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1259Paradigm Shift

Season APEX 194.5Event APEX 106.89Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

706Cyberhawks

Season APEX 91Event APEX 37.88Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 417.2 ±11.2

5826Avis Automata

Season APEX 119.2Event APEX 79.14Rank 5Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8802Milwaukee United

Season APEX 52.1Event APEX 7.05Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2194Fondy Fire

Season APEX 245.9Event APEX 111.26Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10264, 1259, 706

/ 100 compat

Projected

210.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10264, 1259, 706

Auto

26.5 13%

Teleop

119.9 59%

Endgame

57.0 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5826, 8802, 2194

/ 100 compat

Projected

197.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5826, 8802, 2194

Auto

57.0 30%

Teleop

91.0 48%

Endgame

40.6 22%

Strengths

· 2194 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.57 · Blue 1.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score210.7pts

Blue projected score197.5pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 13.3
Score range: 175–233
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 424 vs event baseline 121.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

357Season APEX417.2

26.5Auto57

119.9Teleop91

57Endgame40.6

40Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	52
teleop	130	92
endgame	72	27
foul	5	0
total	253	171

Result

Final score

253 – 171

Prediction correct · off by 34.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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