Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

62.99 – 126.22

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

43 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 14.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 146.9 ±15.1

8803MechaMarines

Season APEX 41.7Event APEX 27.69Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

5019Gearbox Heroes

Season APEX 52.1Event APEX 24Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11139Blackhawk Robotics #11139

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 11.3Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 384.1 ±11.7

9760Cristo Rey Jesuit Trailblazers

Season APEX 61.1Event APEX 22.71Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4054The Aeronauts

Season APEX 78.4Event APEX 17.63Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1792Round Table Robotics

Season APEX 244.6Event APEX 85.88Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8803, 5019, 11139

/ 100 compat

Projected

63 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8803, 5019, 11139

Auto

24.0 41%

Teleop

32.1 54%

Endgame

2.9 5%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9760, 4054, 1792

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9760, 4054, 1792

Auto

25.3 20%

Teleop

63.9 50%

Endgame

37.4 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.03 · Blue 1.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score63pts

Blue projected score126.2pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -63.2
Score range: 41–148
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 160 vs event baseline 122.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

146.9Season APEX384.1

24Auto25.3

32.1Teleop63.9

2.9Endgame37.4

4Consistency70

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	26
teleop	24	43
endgame	5	48
foul	0	0
total	43	117

Result

Final score

43 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 14.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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