Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

106.36 – 87.83

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

61 – 135

Prediction missed · off by 46.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 186.1 ±12.2

2830Riverside RoboTigers

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 31.92Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5148New Berlin Blitz

Season APEX 67.9Event APEX 49.38Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3381Droid Rage

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 25.06Rank 38Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 443.6 ±10.4

171Cheese Curd Herd

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 42.04Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

93NEW Apple Corps

Season APEX 115.8Event APEX 57.72Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2826Wave Robotics

Season APEX 215.4Event APEX -11.93Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2830, 5148, 3381

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2830, 5148, 3381

Auto

25.4 24%

Teleop

44.6 43%

Endgame

34.0 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 171, 93, 2826

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 171, 93, 2826

Auto

15.5 17%

Teleop

46.9 52%

Endgame

28.3 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score106.4pts

Blue projected score87.8pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 18.5
Score range: 66–128
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 196 vs event baseline 122.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

186.1Season APEX443.6

25.4Auto15.5

44.6Teleop46.9

34Endgame28.3

39Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	16
teleop	26	95
endgame	20	19
foul	0	5
total	61	135

Result

Final score

61 – 135

Prediction missed · off by 46.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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