Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

197.56 – 103.62

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

226 – 144

Prediction correct · off by 34.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 386.4 ±9.8

10264STORM

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 63.35Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10909CuttingEdge

Season APEX 69Event APEX 25.81Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2194Fondy Fire

Season APEX 245.9Event APEX 108.4Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 202.4 ±12.2

1716Redbird Robotics

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 2.34Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6318FE Freedom Engineers

Season APEX 28.5Event APEX 28.3Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5826Avis Automata

Season APEX 119.2Event APEX 72.98Rank 5Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10264, 10909, 2194

/ 100 compat

Projected

197.6 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10264, 10909, 2194

Auto

55.8 28%

Teleop

94.1 48%

Endgame

46.8 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1716, 6318, 5826

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1716, 6318, 5826

Auto

35.2 38%

Teleop

36.6 40%

Endgame

20.1 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.03 · Blue 1.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score197.6pts

Blue projected score103.6pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 93.9
Score range: 82–220
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 370 vs event baseline 122.5.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

386.4Season APEX202.4

55.8Auto35.2

94.1Teleop36.6

46.8Endgame20.1

25Consistency104

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	33
teleop	110	80
endgame	65	31
foul	30	0
total	226	144

Result

Final score

226 – 144

Prediction correct · off by 34.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.