Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

154.09 – 212.27

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

101 – 129

Prediction correct · off by 68.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 278.6 ±11.7

6318FE Freedom Engineers

Season APEX 28.5Event APEX 36.44Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1259Paradigm Shift

Season APEX 194.5Event APEX 113.88Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5096The Teutonic Force

Season APEX 55.6Event APEX 3.77Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 539.1 ±11.2

9578Player One

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX -11.9Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1306BadgerBOTS

Season APEX 257.2Event APEX 229.11Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2826Wave Robotics

Season APEX 215.4Event APEX -4.94Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6318, 1259, 5096

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6318, 1259, 5096

Auto

36.5 24%

Teleop

80.0 53%

Endgame

34.5 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9578, 1306, 2826

/ 100 compat

Projected

212.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9578, 1306, 2826

Auto

37.5 18%

Teleop

145.6 69%

Endgame

27.9 13%

Strengths

· 1306 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.11 · Blue 1.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score154.1pts

Blue projected score212.3pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -58.2
Score range: 129–237
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 230 vs event baseline 138.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

278.6Season APEX539.1

36.5Auto37.5

80Teleop145.6

34.5Endgame27.9

47Consistency101

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	17
teleop	50	107
endgame	11	0
foul	0	5
total	101	129

Result

Final score

101 – 129

Prediction correct · off by 68.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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