Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

103.51 – 98.39

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

64 – 156

Prediction missed · off by 48.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 219.6 ±12.2

7103Robo Remedy @ Manitowoc Lutheran High School

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 22.71Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8700W.I.R.E.D

Season APEX 58.6Event APEX 14.72Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6223Arsenal of Engineering

Season APEX 94.2Event APEX 66.08Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 338.9 ±11.2

6421WarriorBots

Season APEX 102.2Event APEX 71Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11139Blackhawk Robotics #11139

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 7.76Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10553Orange Overdrive

Season APEX 183.6Event APEX 19.63Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7103, 8700, 6223

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 7103, 8700, 6223

Auto

30.1 31%

Teleop

46.9 49%

Endgame

19.2 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6421, 11139, 10553

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6421, 11139, 10553

Auto

20.4 20%

Teleop

56.4 57%

Endgame

22.8 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.43 · Blue 1.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score103.5pts

Blue projected score98.4pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 5.1
Score range: 76–126
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 220 vs event baseline 121.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

219.6Season APEX338.9

30.1Auto20.4

46.9Teleop56.4

19.2Endgame22.8

0Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	27
teleop	21	66
endgame	17	13
foul	15	50
total	64	156

Result

Final score

64 – 156

Prediction missed · off by 48.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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