Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

137.53 – 58.11

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

103 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 17.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 245 ±11

171Cheese Curd Herd

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 40.79Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9760Cristo Rey Jesuit Trailblazers

Season APEX 61.1Event APEX 28.74Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10264STORM

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 68Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 165.8 ±12.2

6643Walnuts and Bolts

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 0.25Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2830Riverside RoboTigers

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 30.33Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6318FE Freedom Engineers

Season APEX 28.5Event APEX 27.53Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 171, 9760, 10264

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 171, 9760, 10264

Auto

11.0 8%

Teleop

72.1 55%

Endgame

47.5 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6643, 2830, 6318

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.1 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6643, 2830, 6318

Auto

21.5 34%

Teleop

27.4 44%

Endgame

14.0 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.87 · Blue 0.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score137.5pts

Blue projected score58.1pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 79.4
Score range: 36–160
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 162 vs event baseline 121.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

245Season APEX165.8

11Auto21.5

72.1Teleop27.4

47.5Endgame14

33Consistency73

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	18
teleop	52	16
endgame	34	10
foul	0	15
total	103	59

Result

Final score

103 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 17.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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