Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

36.38 – 75.74

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

101 – 31

Prediction missed · off by 54.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 198.7 ±12.8

5096The Teutonic Force

Season APEX 55.6Event APEX -11.93Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

706Cyberhawks

Season APEX 91Event APEX 34.7Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5019Gearbox Heroes

Season APEX 52.1Event APEX 13.61Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 163.2 ±12.7

11139Blackhawk Robotics #11139

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 11.45Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7103Robo Remedy @ Manitowoc Lutheran High School

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 27.1Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1091Oriole Assault

Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 37.19Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5096, 706, 5019

/ 100 compat

Projected

36.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5096, 706, 5019

Auto

16.1 41%

Teleop

17.1 44%

Endgame

5.8 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11139, 7103, 1091

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 11139, 7103, 1091

Auto

22.8 30%

Teleop

36.4 49%

Endgame

15.8 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.13 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score36.4pts

Blue projected score75.7pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -39.4
Score range: 14–98
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 132 vs event baseline 123.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

198.7Season APEX163.2

16.1Auto22.8

17.1Teleop36.4

5.8Endgame15.8

81Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	24
teleop	42	7
endgame	29	0
foul	20	0
total	101	31

Result

Final score

101 – 31

Prediction missed · off by 54.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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