Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

146.16 – 58.04

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

184 – 55

Prediction correct · off by 20.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 373.6 ±12.4

4054The Aeronauts

Season APEX 78.4Event APEX 19.37Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2194Fondy Fire

Season APEX 245.9Event APEX 104.77Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3381Droid Rage

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 22.02Rank 38Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 319.4 ±11.2

10553Orange Overdrive

Season APEX 183.6Event APEX 10.69Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9425Intra Milwaukee

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 22.23Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10909CuttingEdge

Season APEX 69Event APEX 25.12Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4054, 2194, 3381

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4054, 2194, 3381

Auto

45.9 32%

Teleop

57.9 40%

Endgame

40.7 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10553, 9425, 10909

/ 100 compat

Projected

58 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10553, 9425, 10909

Auto

30.0 52%

Teleop

21.4 37%

Endgame

5.8 10%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.92 · Blue 0.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score146.2pts

Blue projected score58pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 88.1
Score range: 36–168
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 239 vs event baseline 123.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

373.6Season APEX319.4

45.9Auto30

57.9Teleop21.4

40.7Endgame5.8

110Consistency83

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	27
teleop	89	8
endgame	44	20
foul	5	0
total	184	55

Result

Final score

184 – 55

Prediction correct · off by 20.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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