Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

81.28 – 62.08

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

65 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 14.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 239.7 ±12.8

4054The Aeronauts

Season APEX 78.4Event APEX 11.45Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10287Kingdom Prep RC

Season APEX 48.9Event APEX 18.84Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

171Cheese Curd Herd

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 50.99Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 192 ±12.2

6732BHS RoboRaiders

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 27.67Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5019Gearbox Heroes

Season APEX 52.1Event APEX 17.21Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7103Robo Remedy @ Manitowoc Lutheran High School

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 17.2Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4054, 10287, 171

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4054, 10287, 171

Auto

7.8 10%

Teleop

36.3 47%

Endgame

32.4 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6732, 5019, 7103

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6732, 5019, 7103

Auto

23.8 41%

Teleop

20.8 36%

Endgame

12.8 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score81.3pts

Blue projected score62.1pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 19.2
Score range: 37–106
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 114 vs event baseline 138.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

239.7Season APEX192

7.8Auto23.8

36.3Teleop20.8

32.4Endgame12.8

81Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	13
teleop	29	28
endgame	21	8
foul	5	0
total	65	49

Result

Final score

65 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 14.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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