Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

125.51 – 84.02

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

148 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 34.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 232.6 ±12.2

10287Kingdom Prep RC

Season APEX 48.9Event APEX 22.35Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

93NEW Apple Corps

Season APEX 115.8Event APEX 60.75Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5148New Berlin Blitz

Season APEX 67.9Event APEX 42.41Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 356.2 ±11.2

6223Arsenal of Engineering

Season APEX 94.2Event APEX 69.62Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10553Orange Overdrive

Season APEX 183.6Event APEX 1.23Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4054The Aeronauts

Season APEX 78.4Event APEX 13.17Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10287, 93, 5148

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 10287, 93, 5148

Auto

18.5 15%

Teleop

63.6 52%

Endgame

41.0 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6223, 10553, 4054

/ 100 compat

Projected

84 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6223, 10553, 4054

Auto

22.2 30%

Teleop

34.0 46%

Endgame

17.7 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.69 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score125.5pts

Blue projected score84pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 41.5
Score range: 62–148
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 279 vs event baseline 123.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

232.6Season APEX356.2

18.5Auto22.2

63.6Teleop34

41Endgame17.7

46Consistency73

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	24
teleop	70	93
endgame	55	14
foul	0	0
total	148	131

Result

Final score

148 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 34.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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