Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

163.08 – 125.42

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

118 – 107

Prediction correct · off by 31.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 254.9 ±11

7103Robo Remedy @ Manitowoc Lutheran High School

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 36.88Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2830Riverside RoboTigers

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 32.53Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5826Avis Automata

Season APEX 119.2Event APEX 93.67Rank 5Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 315.7 ±12.4

1716Redbird Robotics

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 14.76Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9578Player One

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX -5.01Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1259Paradigm Shift

Season APEX 194.5Event APEX 115.67Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7103, 2830, 5826

/ 100 compat

Projected

163.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 7103, 2830, 5826

Auto

48.5 31%

Teleop

74.5 48%

Endgame

33.0 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1716, 9578, 1259

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1716, 9578, 1259

Auto

32.2 27%

Teleop

68.8 57%

Endgame

19.3 16%

Strengths

· 1259 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score163.1pts

Blue projected score125.4pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 37.7
Score range: 103–185
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 225 vs event baseline 120.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

254.9Season APEX315.7

48.5Auto32.2

74.5Teleop68.8

33Endgame19.3

0Consistency102

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	8
teleop	54	26
endgame	24	48
foul	5	25
total	118	107

Result

Final score

118 – 107

Prediction correct · off by 31.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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